Information Bulletin Number 0804205

CSU Forecast Team Predicts Above-Average Hurricane Season

Hurricane forecasters at Colorado State University (CSU) have predicted a very active hurricane season, anticipating 15 named Atlantic storms.

Of those 15 storms, the CSU team projects that 8 will become hurricanes and 4 will develop into intense storms (Saffir/Simpson Category 3, 4, or 5).  Long-term averages are 9.6 named storms per year, with 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes.

According to Bill Gray, a CSU forecaster, the team issued a forecast of a less active season in early December, but has adjusted projections based on current oceanic and atmospheric trends.

Gray's colleague, forecaster Phil Klotzback, said that the probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline is 69 percent, compared with the last-century average of 52 percent.

Probabilities of tropical storm-force, hurricane-force and intense hurricane-force winds occurring at specific locations along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts within a variety of time periods are listed on the forecast team's Landfall Probability Web site, which can be found at:

The CSU team will update its forecast on June 2, August 5, September 2, and October 1.

A CSU press release is available at:
while the complete forecast can be found at: